This Progress Report will be updated periodically until its due date with the dates

 

March 11-

Getting the data for this project is doable but somewhat confusing. I have been following the daily updates for the virus provided by the news and one aspect of the data analysis from CNN sources suggested that the fatalities experienced occur more in men than in women. The data in support of this is currently being researched. Another aspect to this virus that silences some preconceptions is that it does not affect the young but recent studies have uncovered the fact that a young doctor in vietnam for instance died upon treating the virus due to the continued exposure of the virus by critically ill patients that overworked her white blood cell count until her immune system was too weak. As for the issues regarding men dying more than women, the speculation is that men have weaker immune systems than women and that certain lifestyle choices regarding the smoking of cigarettes for instance influence the death rate experienced during this pandemic but the data is currently lacking to support this hypothesis and as a result will still be monitored. 

This increasingly suggests that the data collection portion of this project as well as the analysis portion might take the format of a story mapping strategy since the data is constantly being updated. It is however important to understand what is opinion and what is fact during this data search before mapping anything because it is very easy to map misleading data and as a result give a fallacious analysis. 

Although these recent speculations have data that is hard to come by for now, what is certain at this point is that there have indeed been deaths that get updated everyday and at the very least that portion was able to be mapped with data from arcgis online. The content as a result has been symbolized and a grey canvas base map has been used to map the confirmed deaths around the world. 

There are 4 countries that will be focused on regarding the confirmed deaths. These countries are, the USA, Italy, China, and Nigeria. The focus on these countries rests with the fact that they are all handling the pandemic differently and it will be looked into during the analysis portion. The data is for the analysis as a result is precarious at this point. A projection where data may be lacking for predictions may be employed and that seems to be what most of the journalists and scientists are doing since the disease is fairly new. 

The data as a result is currently being manipulated to demonstrate the above statements and i will try to reflect that in the results. 

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APRIL 4-

In addition to the above statements, I have found more data that i can use for the mapping of the deaths per day from march to the present day in April. The data includes the race and ages of the people that have died in different countries. Some of the excel files i have found are from different the Harvard database in addition to the arc gis online database previously used. There are also journalist articles where data is listed and i am currently looking at how to properly convert them into a usable excel or CSV file that that may either stand on its own or be joined to already existing data. with the added criteria of the use of interpolation tools, i am currently figuring out which data i am going to use to project the death rate going forward and researching how i am going to get that done. I have found some news on the economic effects related to the virus but am still trying to see how that affects the fatalities experienced. I am also trying to sift through the sources to see which is necessary and unnecessary for the focus of this report. Since the confirmed cases are linked to the fatalities, I will put that in there. It was also determined that through news sources such as CNN that there might be a link between the death rate experienced and the gender. It was reported that Men died more than women from the virus and that there is a link between the lifestyle of men being more of smokers than women for instance and as a result may have weaker immune systems than women. I am currently looking for data that supports this fact. People with underlying health conditions have also been said to be at risk of dying and may also have been part of those that died but it does not reflect that thus far in the data observed. I will still look to see if the news matches what is being reported by the CDC or the WHO. 

Thus far the only data that can be manipulated for analysis is the death rate over the short period of time by age and race and by country. As for the hot spots, and look to see why they are dying so much and also look to see why areas in which fatalities are low are not. That much can be analyzed from the data i have received so far. The math models for the spread is there but the model for the death rate projected is still to be determined.  As a result i can look at the projected death rate if certain precautions are not taken and how the death rate much like experienced over the past month can be slowed or even reversed if those precautions are taken. Although a lot of people have recovered, medical professionals are still studying the rate of reinfection after recovery and due to the fact that there are asymptomatic carriers further studies will to monitor those that have recovered need to be made to ensure that they do not become future fatalities. It however has been determined that after recovery lung function is permanently impaired. Data supporting this currently being researched and if necessary will be addressed in later in the analysis and results portion of this project. 

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APRIL 5-

The first set of maps have been created. The excel files i have for the races are actually not updated and are from 2018 which is not updated for the purpose of this project so i shall be looking that up to create a map for those. Date for the march to april is currently being researched and the maps i do have are being exported and saved as map packages. The goal is to have all the mapped dated done first before doing a graphs, interpolation, or models by the 13th of April at which point we can further manipulate the data for the analysis and results. The logrithmic scales used for each day is currently being researched and the relevance will later be determined in either the results or the analysis. If i cannot find the accurate data to map by age, gender, or underlying conditions as suggested by news and article sources online, then i will focus the next portion of the map on just Italy, USA, and China. The only other challenging part about this is figuring out which data is accurate because it has been suggested by certain online sources that some of the deaths recorded may not have been caused by Covid-19.

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April 8-

Screenshots of the excel data used will probably be posted. News sources suggest that african americans constitute most of the fatalities in america and it may be tied to socioeconomic conditions but data in support of that is still yet to be determined. The decline of the fatalities is still being hoped for and monitored. 

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April 12-

It has been uncovered that there is an economic factor affecting the death rate experienced in certain countries. The data in support is still being explored and will be released by the CDC when there is succinct evidence but a clear analysis can be made to observe why deaths occur at a lesser rate in houston areas in houston as opposed to italy or china at the start of ths spread. It is hypothetical at this point because the scientific community is still researching but it may also have to do with the choice of how compacted certain home buildings are and the fact that people in newyork when compared to china or italy regarding lifestyle do not drive a lot as opposed to living in places like houston where people drive all the time and spread the virus less due to less physical contact. At this point, it is safe to stop the progress report and let the other sections of the project better address the aforementioned.